STOCK WATCH:
Oil production surge seen for GoM under best case scenarios
09 June 2009
U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production is expected to increase substantially over the next several years, possibly reaching 1.9 million barrels per day. But this best case scenario depends on the successful development of known discoveries as well as undiscovered resources. In contrast, U.S. Gulf gas production is expected to continue its decline because of aging projects in shallow water.
These are key conclusions found in “Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Forecast: 2009-2018,” authored by the U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) and released in early May at the annual Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas.
“The Gulf of Mexico is one of the single largest suppliers of oil and gas to the U.S. market,” noted Lars Herbst, MMS regional director. “With continued interest and activity in deepwater areas of the Gulf of Mexico, we anticipate that oil production will continue to be strong with a large portion of production coming from projects in deeper water depths.”
In compiling the report, operators were asked to supply projected production rates for all deepwater projects online or planned to come online before yearend 2014. Additionally, deepwater oil and gas production estimates were assumed to have an effective annual decline rate of 12% each year from 2014 through 2018.
This is a good time to review a few of the more interesting, largely unreported Gulf of Mexico statistics for 2008, now that the numbers have been crunched, scrutinized and distributed to the media via a U.S. Minerals Management Service study released at this year’s Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas. Naturally, the report’s spotlight is on industry accomplishments and expectations for the deep and ultradeep waters of the U.S. Gulf, which represent an increasing share of regional production and seem to have no limit when it comes to oil and natural gas prospects and discoveries.